China: who can fit the dragon with brakes?

As China’s economic development soars, how will it sustain itself in the years ahead? Peta Tomlinson reports

China, one of the world’s oldest civilisations and home to over one-fifth of the global population, hasn’t survived till the 21st century without its share of bumps in the road.

Today, the nation that had evolved quietly and independently for 5,000 years is facing its biggest challenge in history. When China opened its doors, they turned out to be floodgates. The country that was previously happy enough merely to feed and clothe its own people is now the world’s fastest growing economy, doubling every eight years since the late 1970s. In the process, it has also become the world’s second largest emitter of C02 gasses, the largest importer of forest products, the second largest importer of oil, and the largest producer (by far) of environmentally poisonous steel and cement.

It’s not only the outside world that wants a piece of the China action. Western ways may be poles apart from their traditional practices, but Chinese people are catching on fast. Armed with 10 times (on average) the purchasing power they had just a quarter of a century ago, the Chinese are embracing the material world, with a rising level of consumer sophistication. According to a survey by Ernst & Young, China is expected to surpass the US to become the world’s second largest consumer of luxury goods within a decade.

Lifestyle expectation is galloping, bringing with it a mass exodus from rural areas, and increasing pressure on already overcrowded and polluted cities. China’s urban population is projected to swell by 250m people over the next 20 years. At the same time, the nation is preparing its “best” face to host the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. The question of sustainability is on everyone’s radar. Can China continue developing at a pace no nation has known before, and keep from self-destructing?

At government level, officials have pledged their commitment to sustainable development, and David Runnalls, President of the Canada based International Institute of Sustainable Development and co-chair of the China Council Task Force on WTO and Environment, believes they are serious. He describes China’s top level openness about its environmental problems, and its willingness to take on board advice from overseas, as unprecedented.

“The Government is doing a little and a lot,” says Runnalls. “They talk of creating a ‘well-off society’ by 2020, but they know they can’t get there by growing as they have in the past. Officials recognise that the country doesn’t have enough raw materials, and is struggling with its own waste. Their aim is to transform the economy to achieve growth, but with less use of natural resources.”

But how to do this? In 2004, China’s Ministry of Construction announced an ambitious plan for sustainable growth. Last year, Beijing hosted the 21st Century Forum on Sustainable Development. The forum was addressed by Premier Wen Jiabao, indicating the importance of the topic. Yet, when Chinese officials put their dilemma to the attending overseas experts, “we had no idea what to say”, says Runnalls. “Chinese officials have read the same figures as the rest of us, and they are scared. I don’t know of any other country that would be so open with foreigners, and ask their advice.” But no other country had been in such a predicament. Overseas, countries had developed at a more even pace, and dealt with sustainability issues as they arose. With China’s unprecedented pace, it was a case of uncharted waters.

Strategies of the past two or three years have been a good start, says Runnalls. A new renewable energy standard was announced with the aim that, by 2015, 10% of electricity produced will come from renewable sources - a big step, coming from zero. New standards for fuel emissions from cars are among the toughest in the world. The Government is trying to control urban sprawl and protect farmland. It has banned logging, and begun a major reforestation project. It is attempting the bold move of a “green GDP”, where value is placed on natural resources, with credits awarded for environmentally sensible behaviour, and debits made against those which are not. A groundswell of public intolerance for China’s environmental problems is another incentive for a Government whose people no longer blindly accept its ideology.

“The problem is,” says Runnalls, “China’s responses are way too small compared to the problem. Major technology reform is needed to upgrade the old power stations. A massive investment in public transport is required. There is no silver bullet solution. Sustainable development will only come about when environmental decisions are deemed as important as economic decisions. Neither China nor the world can afford to have the gradual transition from a polluting society to a non-polluting society that the rest of the developed world has enjoyed. For them, change must come much faster.”

Dissatisfaction

But understanding a problem and addressing it are two different issues, says Andrew Thomson, CEO of Hong Kong’s Business Environment Council (BEC), an independent business association advocating environmental and sustainable development. Intervention to date has been “inadequate”, with recent events such as the PetroChina spillage raising the stakes for failure to act. “Rhetoric will be judged in hindsight,” says Thomson. “Certainly, the resignation of senior environmental and government officials is indicative of a high degree of dissatisfaction with progress.”

Thomson says that Hong Kong, with huge numbers of investments in China, is an obvious role model for successful and sustainable business practice. “It is the gateway for technologies and services which can assist China in making the appropriate developments,” he says.

Thomson pointed out that BEC member companies have been assisting China for many years. As an organisation, BEC has joined with the Federation of Hong Kong Industries on a number of environmental initiatives for China, for one simple reason: “If we do not address environmental (issues) in China, then sustainability for Hong Kong and globally will be challenged,” says Thomson. “China is the manufacturing entrepot of the world. It is consuming resources and producing products and pollution at unsustainable levels. This is a challenge that needs as wide a support as can be mustered.”

Dominic Yin, a Hong Kong based environmental activist and businessman, says China is now paying the price for failing systematically and strategically to develop renewable energy sources. The key is for its Government to make firm decisions, and follow them through with strict laws and their enforcement.

Through his company, Greater China Protection Co Ltd, Yin is attempting first to convince the Hong Kong owners of 77,000 factories in the Pearl River Delta (in southern China - the nation’s industrial powerhouse), and later other foreign and local PRD enterprises, to adopt the world’s best practice P2E2 (Pollution Prevention & Energy Efficiency) environmental standards. Privately, he has established a think-tank called the Greater China Sustainable Development Council, and inviting patriotic overseas Chinese, foreigners and foreign organisations to join. The aim is to initiate practical responses to China’s sustainability issues and, ultimately, to secure private funding for individual projects.

It is through such concerted efforts that a balance may be found. China has a long march ahead. While its environmental problems may have resulted from one giant economic leap, their solution could lie in many small steps.

Peta Tomlinson is a freelance journalist who writes for the South China Morning Post and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.