Accountants remained cautious in Q3, but survey data points to a resilient global economy despite the uncertain and unpredictable global backdrop, which is increasingly the ‘new normal’.
Key findings
The key themes from this quarter's survey are as follows:
- The global economy is proving resilient, despite the negative impacts from the Middle East conflict.
- The Global New Orders Index improved to just above its historical average.
- The AI boom continues to provide major support to global growth and equity markets.
- Cost pressures remain a major challenge with 70% of global accountants reporting increased operating costs.
- Two-thirds of accountants expect inflation to rise in their country over the next three months.
- 50% expect interest rate increases in their country over the next three months, 16% thought so in Q4 2025.
- Rises in energy prices, increases in government bond yields, and tighter monetary policy are risks to global growth.
- Accountants top risk priorities are economic pressures (24%), geopolitical instability (18%), and regulatory/compliance risks and cybersecurity (c.13%).
- CFO confidence improved, but remains quite low historically: chief concerns are economic pressures (28%) and geopolitics (25%).
Explore the findings
The GECS recorded a very minor fall in confidence among global accountants in Q3 2026. Confidence remains meaningfully higher than the near-record low in Q1 amid the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. However, it remains in the low range it has moved in since late 2024, despite a global economy that has proved surprisingly resilient. This continued caution likely reflects the impacts from geopolitical risks and tensions, major changes in trade policy, country specific challenges, and rising political polarisation, which have created a highly uncertain and unpredictable operating environment for firms.
Our key global activity indicators all improved slightly in Q3, consistent with a global economy that continues to show resilience. The forward-looking Global New Orders Index is now modestly above its historical average, and similar to most readings since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Global Employment Index remains at quite a low level by historical standards. This may reflect the fact that while the unemployment rate is quite low in many major economies, job markets are rather sluggish and very far from firing on all cylinders.
Cost pressures remain intense in the global economy, amid higher energy-related and other costs due to the war in the Middle East. The rapid AI build out is also pushing up prices, while higher import tariffs are a contributing factor in countries such as the U.S.. 69% of survey respondents reported increased operating costs – significantly above the series average. Moreover, 82% of CFOs reported increased costs – barely down from the previous quarter. Developments in the Middle East and with energy prices will clearly have a very important impact on costs over coming quarters.
As regards our early indicators of potential corporate stress, concerns among accountants globally that their customers could go out of business rose in Q3. Excluding the pandemic era, the indicator is looking somewhat on the high side by historical standards, although it is at levels broadly similar to some readings in 2011 and 2012. Problems securing prompt payment globally also increased according to accountants. The series is only slightly higher than its historical average but is looking somewhat elevated compared with other readings in the post-pandemic period.
Headline inflation has begun to rise again in many economies, and higher food prices appear to be another upside risk over coming months and quarters, including through the impacts of what looks set to be an extremely powerful El Niño weather effect. Against such a backdrop, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan all raised interest rates in September, and further monetary tightening appears likely over coming months.
Downside risks are increasing as rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran fuel a renewed rise in energy prices. This has sent major central banks back into tightening mode, while government bond yields in the U.S. and other advanced economies have risen to the highest levels in decades. Developments in the Middle East will be key over coming months. A further sharp rise in energy prices would weigh on economies and increase pressure on central banks to act, and may lead to government bond yields hitting levels that could be increasingly damaging for the economy and financial markets. Indeed, expensive valuations could make equity markets vulnerable to a significant price correction.
