At a glance

Global accountants’ confidence close to record lows amid heightened uncertainty and rising costs.

Improvements in some of the indices suggest resilient global growth ahead of the war.

‘International and geopolitical instability’ jumped to the top of global accountants’ Q1 risk priorities.

Key findings

Enormous uncertainty clouds the global economy, with developments in the Middle East over coming weeks and months likely to be absolutely key for global economic prospects over the remainder of 2026.  

The survey was conducted between the 3 and 19 March and therefore the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East will have been a major factor weighing on sentiment.

The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) suggested that confidence among global accountants fell sharply in Q1 2026 

 

GECS global indicators

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The depressed level of confidence clearly makes for sobering reading, although it is worth noting that the index is broadly similar to its level in Q1 2025, after a sharp decline in the aftermath of the US presidential election. Confidence fell particularly sharply among chief financial officers (CFOs), and is now at its weakest since Q1 2020, albeit well above that record low.

GECS Confidence and New Orders indices for CFOs

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Some encouraging signs?

The message emanating from some of the other key GECS indicators was slightly more encouraging.  After previously hitting a post-pandemic low in Q4 2025, the forward-looking Global New Orders Index registered a decent increase in Q1. It is now at its historical average level and broadly in the centre of the range of readings recorded since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The Global Employment Index, which captures the hiring and firing decisions of firms, also improved somewhat, while remaining below its historical average. 

Meanwhile, there was a very small fall in the Global Capital Expenditure Index. It remains below the series average, but is at a level not too dissimilar from many of its other readings over the past several years.  

In terms of CFOs, there was a notable improvement in the New Orders Index from quite a low level in Q4, although the series can be quite volatile at times. 

Resilience 

The resilience of some of the key indicators can be attributed to the fact that the global economy was in relatively decent shape before the conflict, amid the current global artificial intelligence (AI) boom, favourable global financial conditions and fiscal easing in a number of major economies. 

Nevertheless, the rise in energy and other commodity prices, and significant increase in uncertainty, create major downside risks for global growth. Key is whether a permanent cessation of hostilities can be agreed over coming weeks.

Price pressures 

The proportion of global accountants reporting ‘increased costs’ rose by five percentage points in Q1 2026. 69% of survey respondents experienced increased operating costs, well above the 48% median reading over the survey history, and close to the series all-time peak of 71% in Q3 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Cost pressures were already elevated in Q4 2025, and the further rise likely reflects some of the early impacts from the surge in the prices of energy and other commodities since the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East.

In terms of CFOs, the proportion reporting increased operating costs eased slightly in Q1, but remains on the high side historically.    

Concerns about increased operating costs 

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Accountants’ perceptions of risks 

In the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026), geopolitical instability emerged as the top risk priority for accountants – only the second time since the global risks survey was added to the GECS in Q2 2023 that economic pressures have not ranked first. On both occasions, including Q2 2025, geopolitical instability has taken the top spot.

While economic risks remain existential, respondents emphasise how converging forces are shaping the macro landscape. They point to AI and cyber risks amplifying others, while eroding trust – in institutions, information and leadership – is becoming a defining feature of operating in today’s world. 

Accountants’ top risk priorities over past year

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GECS background 

Running since 2011, GECS – carried out jointly by ACCA and the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA) – remains the world’s largest regular survey of accountants, both in terms of the number of respondents and the range of economic variables monitored.   

Further reading