The outlook for global trade: perspectives from business leaders

2025 has been a monumental year for international trade, with the US raising its import tariffs to their highest level since the 1930s (see Chart 1). While key indicators of US trade policy uncertainty have eased from earlier peaks, businesses continue to navigate a highly uncertain global environment.

ACCA’s report, The outlook for global trade: perspectives from business leaders, surveyed accountants and business leaders on their current views on global trade.

While 85% of respondents were concerned about the impacts of tariffs on their organisations, businesses were relatively optimistic about the future.

28% expect their organisations to increase their amount of global trade ‘significantly’ in the next three to five years, and the same proportion expect it to ‘increase somewhat’, while 18% and 5%, respectively, expect it to decrease ‘somewhat’ and ‘significantly’.

C-suite executives were even more positive (see Chart 2).

Given the major disruptions caused by changes in US trade policy, superpower rivalry and ongoing conflicts around the world, it was perhaps not surprising that ‘geopolitical tensions’, ‘international or civil conflicts/wars’ and ‘protectionist policies in advanced economies’ were viewed as the top three risks or barriers for global trade over the coming years.

Business leaders were quite clear on the top three opportunities. In first place, was ‘use technology (eg AI) to help facilitate global trade’ (see Chart 3). In second and third place were ‘diversifying production, investment or location of suppliers’ and ‘gain access to new technologies’.

Major changes in US trade policy could have profound impacts on future global trade patterns and flows. The survey suggested that 60% of organisations have already moved the location of some of their production, investment or suppliers in recent years, and 61% say they are likely to do so in the next few years.

Meanwhile, the survey results do not refute concerns that a less open global trading system could push up costs for households and firms. Around 35% of respondents report that their organisation’s costs are likely to increase by more than 10% due to changes in global trade in the coming years, while 46% expect them to increase by up to 10%. Just 6% expect them to decrease (see Chart 4).