Scenario storytelling in the oil and gas sector

Thirty years ago the oil and gas industry was -

Rapidly changing

Relatively cosy

Very competitive indeed

A mature market

Fracking is -

Not really amenable as it is not quite as uncertain as things like the oil price

Not really an issue that can be modelled through scenarios - as it is too new

Not really an issue that can be modelled through scenarios - as it is too uncertain

Precisely the kind of issue that scenarios would help with, as there is enough known about it but also a lot that is not quite known

Fracking is -

Another way of doing deep-sea O&G exploration

A way of getting oil out of rock by applying high pressure water, chemicals and sand

A particular type of organisational intervention to create culture change in the O&G industry

A way of disrupting competition through a new entry strategy

Another deep-sea disaster would be -

Precisely amenable to scenarios as it combines a number of these uncertainties

Not amenable to scenarios because of random physical events

Not amenable to scenarios because of random management failure

Not amenable to scenarios because of random technical failure

Scenarios are applicable -

Only to a small number of industries

Only really to industry prices - like oil

Only to oil and gas

Across all industries

Today the oil and gas industry is -

Very uncertain

Both very competitive and very uncertain

Still relatively cosy

Very competitive

A transitional event is -

An event that might trigger the end of the world

An event which might trigger a different significantly state of the world - often through disruption

An organisational intervention

Something you intend to do to achieve your plan

Building scenarios requires -

Extrapolations of existing trends plus understanding the underlying systems-plus modelling them

Extrapolations of existing trends, plus understanding the underlying systems and modelling them, plus understanding the key players, their agendas, their intentions and their possible options-and then role playing them

Extrapolations of existing trends plus understanding the underlying systems

Extrapolations of existing trends

A scenario is -

Another word for something that could go quite wrong

A different, complicated, and unconventional type of planning

A self-consistent and plausible story-line about the future based on specific events and actions by the various players involved and their consequences

A set of high, medium, and low forecasts

Scenarios are sometimes found difficult because -

Managers find it difficult to choose a very specific combination of events and circumstances and actions (as in a novel) - because they know that it will never actually happen that particular way, and they never want to be wrong when planning

They have not really got the time

The future is simply unknowable

There is not enough hard data

Scenario storytelling in the oil and gas sector

Thirty years ago the oil and gas industry was -

Fracking is -

Fracking is -

Another deep-sea disaster would be -

Scenarios are applicable -

Today the oil and gas industry is -

A transitional event is -

Building scenarios requires -

A scenario is -

Scenarios are sometimes found difficult because -

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