2026 Global Economic Outlook: Steady, but fragile global growth

Why this report matters

ACCA’s 2026 Global Economic Outlook provides a clear, evidence-based view of where the global economy is heading. Whether you are shaping strategy, managing risk, advising stakeholders or planning your own career, it should help you navigate the many challenges, risks and opportunities in the year ahead.

Global growth proved more resilient than expected in 2025, and the global economy is set to expand at a reasonable, if not particularly exciting pace once again in 2026. Growth is being supported by easier monetary policy, fiscal stimulus in key economies and the continued artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Nevertheless, it is quite a fragile economic backdrop, with heightened geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, elevated public debt, and richly priced financial markets leaving the global economy vulnerable to shocks.

Key findings

• Global growth is likely to remain just above 3% in 2026, broadly in line with 2025, but below pre-pandemic averages.
• Risks remain primarily skewed to the downside, with geopolitical risks likely to remain front and centre once again in 2026. The world is not without upside possibilities though, with the US economy a potential source of upside risks.
• The US is likely to remain the strongest-performing major advanced economy, supported by easier monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and the ongoing AI boom. Growth in Europe and the UK is expected to remain positive but sluggish.
• China’s growth is generally expected to moderate, but should remain faster than the global average. India is set to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy, underpinned by consumer spending, infrastructure investment and structural reforms.

Interview with former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff

We interviewed former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff about his views on the global economy and discussed his recent book, Our Dollar, Your Problem.

Rogoff suggested that the global economy was solid but not exciting, and argued that the huge uncertainty is not reflected in financial markets to the extent it should be. He warned of a big stock market fall at some point over the next three years, but acknowledged the market could go up significantly before falling back. Despite the surprisingly positive economic picture, given where it seemed we were six months ago, he saw downsides to President Trump's policies, with the negative consequences for the US economy likely to be felt in 2027 and 2028.

Rogoff is cautious about AI’s impact on the economy and warns that there's every possibility that we see a bigger backlash against it than we have seen with globalisation. He expects the US dollar to remain the world’s dominant currency, but thinks its market share will shrink. He argues that the odds of a US fiscal crisis happening within four to five years is more likely than not, while acknowledging that a shock may be needed to set it off.

Three key trends we are watching in 2026

1. Developments with AI:

AI has been a key driver of resilience in the global economy in 2025, but concerns have grown about the risk of an AI bubble, similar to the ‘Dot-com’ bubble in the 1990s. If evidence begins to build that AI investment is boosting productivity at firms, fears about an AI bubble could generally ease. Alternatively, if the converse holds, the risk of a large correction in equity markets could increase.

2. Developments in advanced economy bond markets

A material move higher in government bond yields in 2026 in the US and other countries would be likely to weigh on global financial markets, increase debt-servicing costs and hurt economic growth. Potential catalysts include rising investor concerns over the sustainability of the public finances or about threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence, political instability, and policy tightening in Japan.

3. Developments with global trade

Global trade growth proved much more resilient than expected in 2025, despite the large increase in US import tariffs, although clear shifts in trade patterns are evident between some of the major countries. The ripple effects from the major changes in US trade policy need to be monitored closely in 2026, and risks remain of a re-escalation in global trade tensions.

What business leaders are saying

To enrich our economic analysis, we interviewed three business leaders from different parts of the globe.

Renowned business writer and columnist Wu Chen sees a two-speed global economy in 2026, with the high-speed part being AI. He suggests the low-speed part in the US and West will reflect affordability issues, while in China it is a result of continued structural issues. He argues that China needs to raise the share of consumption in its economy.

Mike Fowler, group finance director of Leekes Retail and Leisure Group, is concerned about a lack of a pro-business agenda from the UK government, and suggests that the downside risks to UK growth are far greater than the inflation risks now.

Ebrima Sawaneh, group chief financial officer and chief operating officer at Arise Port & Logistics, is cautiously constructive regarding African economic prospects in 2026. He notes that ‘there are risks and opportunities in 2026 and beyond, but key for organisations will be resilience, decarbonisation readiness and digital reliability, which includes cybersecurity management’.

Explore the full report

Download the 2026 Global Economic Outlook to access detailed analysis, expert interviews and practical insights for navigating the year ahead.